US Stocks end higher following positive inflation news

The release of the PCE price index on Thursday, considered the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, showed a 2.8% increase for the two months ending in January, aligning with expectations.

Despite core rises in the earlier CPI release surpassing expectations, the PCE report eased concerns which prompted a surge in stocks. The PCE data release also contributed to a dip on the 10-year treasury yield to its lowest level since the beginning of February. However, this encouraging inflation news had minimal impact on the Federal Reserve’s stance on potential rate cuts.

Last week also witnessed a dip in the consumer confidence index, breaking a three-month streak of increases. The report highlighted enduring uncertainty regarding the US economy, with consumers primarily preoccupied by concerns about overall inflation.

Across Europe, the major stock indices experienced a mixed week. Germany’s DAX saw a 1.81% increase, contrasting with the FTSE 100’s 0.31% decline. Government bond yields in the Eurozone generally rose as sticky inflation data lead investors to reevaluate potential rate cut magnitudes and timing.

Contrary to the US, preliminary Eurozone CPI estimates were issued indicating that in February, both core and headline inflation exhibited slower than expected deceleration. Annual headline inflation eased to 2.6%, while core inflation slowed to 3.1%, surpassing the anticipated 2.9%.

Asian markets ended the week in positive territory with Japan’s Nikkei index reaching above 40,000 for the first time, extending its streak of record highs. The benchmark index has surged by 19% so far this year, making it a top performer among major equity indexes globally. This surge is attributed to a combination of strong corporate earnings, a depreciating yen, and increased interest from foreign investors seeking alternatives to China’s markets.

Equities

Global stocks were up last week by 0.8% in euro terms and up 0.9% in local terms. Year-to-date global markets are up by 8.4% in euro terms and by 6.3% in local terms. The US market, the largest in the world, finished up 0.9% in euro and 1.0% in local terms.

Fixed Income & FX

The US 10-year yield finished at 4.2% last week. The German equivalent finished at 2.4%. The Irish 10-year bond yield finished at 2.8%. The Euro/US Dollar exchange rate finished at 1.08, whilst Euro/GBP finished at 0.86.

Commodities

Oil finished the week at $80 per barrel and is up 13.7% year-to-date in euro terms. Gold finished the week at $2,083 per troy ounce and is up 2.8% year to-date in euro terms. Copper finished the week at $8,416 per tonne.

The week ahead

Tuesday 5^th March

Eurozone PMI indices go to print.

Thursday 7^th March

ECB Interest rate decision.

Friday 8^th March

US non-farm payrolls are released.